Yes, it states what I explained.
In shorter words:
Our Tropical Highway is this season already ready with high power fuels for storms, it is right Now stronger than it usually would be during our hurricane peak times in summer(august/september), due very above normal/average Sea Surface Temperatures and Ocean Heat Content, as the weak Trade Winds do not stirr up enough deeper ocean waters to cool down the surface.
But, at the same time we get higher wind shear forces, which are a strong bothering element for storm development.
The resulting weak Trade Winds allow the ocean waters to be very hot on the surface and do not bring as much Saharan Dust as usual,
but they also bring less Moisture, whjch is also a missing significant factor to fuel/grow/develop big storms.
An other result of all that is a Weak Atlantic High. To explain this very important thing for storm affects on our Island:
The Atlantic High is a high pressure ridge located North of our Highway.
Surface low pressure systems(our Storms) do avoid such regions like the Devil avoids holy water, lol.
That means that form, size and strength of that Atlantic High is Always the Mayor Factor deciding in which direction a storm out of our East/coming over our Highway, will go.
Naturally, a storm would wander heading NW.
But with a usually strong Atlantic High North of a storm's area, it is forced to wander more W than N, even straight W'wards,
so that's then the storms coming straight into the caribbean Sea, threatening the Northern Islands belt, PR, Hispañola etc.
A weak Atlantic High means that storms get a more or full NW heading, which is very good for us here on the Island,
as due that it is more likely that the storms approaching from Our East will miss us and pass on our NE towards the Bahamas or even earlier out up to the hurricane graveyard mid atlantic.
A good example is the Actual Disturbance/Invest, hitting Atlantic waters as we speak off the West African Coast.
IF it forms, it will wander around 7 " North, that would be a perfect positioning for a Westward Runner to enter the caribbean sea or approach PR/Hispañola from the SE in a week from now, under normal strong Atlantic High Conditions.
With the High Ridge weak, it will stay down around 7-9 degrees N only until it reaches half way of the highway and then turn NW to miss the Caribbean on our NE.
To have such starting run and development today, June 15th!!!, I guess that would be a long time record margin to get a big boy before end June on the doorstep.
No worries, it will Not happen.
What will happen, IF it stays up long enough, is my directional description only.
As for powers/development:
the hot waters may allow to stay up as a area of disturbed weather for several days,
BUT Windshear over all of our Highway is violently high, out there there is no moisture to collect and fuel/build a big storm,
so there is nothing to worry about out there.
It is a very early season interesting heavy weather area, which gives us the opportunity to learn about this first half of the season Strom behaviors, specially in case of their Heading/Directions, so we start to learn what may happen later this season, when conditions allow that a disturbed weather area collects moisture and forms into a storm.
Maybe it stays on long enough to show us the directional Path all the way from Africa towards the Lesser Antilles,
but most likely it will be gone long before reaching that far W'ward.
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